May 2013 pivot for Mongolia future &FDI
The Grand Finale of this M commie circus seems to be delayed to "first " half of 2013
Seems , Rio /TRQ is delaying EVERYTHING with OT -
Which is the only rational move in light of
-- not only commie attack in progress but also
-- looming overall M investment paradigm change ( The REVIEW of all FDI cos)
towards better profits for M and worse outlook /higher risk
of getting lower ROI (or higher loses ) for foreign investors
As one Bold Bat = P.Ochirbat, a mining professional who was the first President of Mongolia and was Chairman of the Organizing Committee of 2012 Discover Mongolia said :
" we are no longer begging them to come and invest here....
Maybe one day soon, it will be the investors who would beg to be allowed in "
( so , be ready to beg suckers / bagholders to be rimmed up by Bold -Bats - commies
.....geeeeesus )
The 6 - 8 months delays :
1 -- First commercial prod till Apr - May - the soonest
If power this week - 6-7 months later as published here
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=31636064&l=0&r=0&s=trq&t=LIST
2-- OT Underground Feasibility Study till "first half" 2012
3.Project financing --$ 4 B till first half of 2013 = not even the greediest
and most risk taking bankers will finance OT in this athmosphere
So, seems as long winter for both:
--all the foreign investors taken hostage
( incl. 90 CAN cos , 54 AU cos, countless Chinese cos , countless M cos counting on FI )
and the insolvent , desperate GOM.
The China slowdown and M commies have frozen M economy and it shows .
Yesterday World Bank announced 40% DROP IN M GDP growth rate for 2012
40 %!!!!!!!......GEEEEESUS
And budget deficit sky rocketing
Why May 2013 is the next point of clearer visibility ?
1. By May 2013 the pivot point for Mongolia`s budget survival or death and whole M economic future will be reached
2.The gov `REVIEW` of all FI agreements and the extend of sqeezing ,
screwing up FI should be known by then
Although , knowing the Bold Bats. they may not finish this for years .
By that time FI will know better if
the gov money grab is acceptable by FI or
the current FI will start REAL EXODUS
and future FI will drop to almost nothing .
Including OT
= either project financing and growth
--or no more investment and running OT as is- only open pit
-- or developing underground bit by bit ,from open pit profits only
( which may not be much after gov portion of profits will be
spend YEARS AHEAD before profoits will arrive- $ 500m of them gone already )
In last case full planed OT prod., moves from 2016 to like 2026
I guess, the result of the REVIEW will be mixed .
Those ,who can afford to get out will exit.
Those, who are beyound point of return - like TRQ - will have to accept haircut or sue them
In the end, FI amounts will shrink but M will grab higher %% of it .
Bold Bats' goal is to use FI and F cos as SERVANTS ,contractors working for them @ 3%-5% profit margin , + assume all market risk
and of course finance 100% ( see below )
In that case better FI deal is to lend to GOM money @ 6%
( they won't default for few years) or
open M bank account paying 15%
3. The TT scandalous gov scam / manipulation shall reach final stage by May 2013
If their double game on ETT IPO ( Apr - May 2013) and TT sale to FI ( end 2012 or NEVER )
won't work as planned, the gov/ state will start downward trajectory
ending with Greece-like default within few years
Unlike Greece , there is no one to bail them out .
Means , " Don't Cry For Me Argentina " LOOL
There are strong ndications , that their too big greed ,
combined with China slowdown will destroy them
WHEN CHINA ( yet alone whole world ) SNEEZES , M IS DEAD
It is a game who will have stronger hand by May 2013 RIO/ FI or GOM.
If TT and ETT will not deliver the planed amount of money to GOM to plug the budget hole they will stiil be begging FI ,( Incl RIO )for a while
And turning FI into beggars will be postponed for few years
4. WHY TT AND ETT WILL TURN INTO DISASTER BY MAY 2013 ?
In 3 words : apparatchick;s wrong math
GOM took best case scenario on TOP OF COAL PRICES CYCLE and
expects to make $4 B on ETT IPO = selling to bagholders 29% of ETT and valuing it at $ 12 b
ETT 2012 prod = 3mt selling 65% met and 35% thermal coal
The aver selling price of ROM = unwashed coal was
BEFORE CHINA DEMAND COLAPSE $ 65/ t x 3mt /y = $ 200m rev 2012/ 13
Chalco gave them already $ 250 m as prepayment for all the coal they can produce in next 3 or 5 years
GOM stole most of it and that $ 250 m dissapeared already
So, ETT will work FOR FREE in the first Y - longer if demand will shrink by 1/2 ( M coal exports to China collapsed by 1/2 in Aug )
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=31623617&l=0&r=0&s=sgq&t=LIST
ETT has no, ZIP money not only for capex to increase the PUMPED /HYPED mine prod
6mt /2013 , 10 mt /2014 , 15 mt / 2015 , 20 mt / 2017
( at least $ 200m capex for each 4 mt increase = $ 1b to get to 20mt )
but also no money in first Y to pay the contractor his $ 500m production cost over next 5 y
and another $ 2 b to build wash plant
+ 275 km road to China
+ 275 km railroad
+ 400km railroad to the north
+ 300MW power plant
+ 70 km water pipeline and wells
+ whole town for thousands workers with hospitals schools etc.
+ pay for the development work done already by vendor financing contractors
TOTAL NEEDED $ 4 b
IPO supposed to get that at $ 12 b valuation
They already realized this is a pipe dreeam and are talking $ 10 b valuation now
Call me when they stop at $ 3 b and max $ 1 b loot from IPO.
If they'll manage to suck investors at higher than $ 3 B cap IPO price ,
the investors will loose mightly from day 1
WLT - selling 12 mt highest quality HC coal at highest = seaborne benchmark prices
of $ 210/t not $ 65/.t
--and going to 20 mt much sooner than ETT
-- having $ 100 /t profits vs TT no more than $25 /t
has cap of $ 2.2 b geeesus
Given the
-- 3 times WLT higher profits/ t
-- , worldwide ESTABLISHED customers long term contracts
-- no growth financing problems
-- safest jurisdiction ( heaven vs Mongolian commie hell )
-- producing now 12 mt vs ETT 3 mt ( 1mt by comparable selling price)
-- will produce 20mt WASHED vs 20 mt ETT unvashed = 14 mt washed equiv
-- no middlemen / gatekeeper like Chalco or other chinese traders who pay ETT 30% lower prices
ETT shall be valued at 1/3 the WLT cap , if not 1/4
= $ 800 m and IPO loot of selling 30% = less than $ 300m
AND THE STUPID BOLD BATS ARE HALUCINATING ABOUT $ 10 B !!!!!!
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Even if market and coal prices will rebound by May 2013
and ETT will produce by that time 5 mt
ETT is not worth more than 1/2 WLT on May 2013
Most optimistic scenario : WLT will go up 80% to $ 4 b cap by May 2013
So , ETT = $ 2b cap max and $700 m loot from IPO vs needed $ 4 b
BTU the king of coal has cap $ 6.4 b geeeeesus
5. AN ATTEMPT TO TURN KING OF COAL = BTU INTO SERVITUDE OF COMMIE OVERLORDS
The BATS have nerve and unbelivably idiotic greed
Originally , they wanted to sell West TT deposit to FI to get money to finance East TT = ETT or fix GOM budget
Then their greed took over and now ETT will keep ownership of West TT
ETT instead is sending letters to former West TT bidders trying to make them to beg for a TT contractor position = you pay $ billions in capex , and work for us @ say, cost +_ 5% profit geeeeesus
MACMAHON the AU contractor for ETT has overall profit margin 3%
Here MAH chart after he signed ETT contract LOOOOL
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=MAH.AX&t=1y&q=l&l=off&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
Here ETT letter to BTU
http://resources.newsresources.info/mining/photo/2012/10/1d541d120721f054/6fe446f2bd9815d0big.jpg
Peabody Energy is still not chosen as a contract miner , it is only invited to the discussion
. If the discussion is unsuccessful, ( READ : BTU WON'T ACCEPT TO BE A SLAVE FOR COMMIE PENNYLESS BEGGARS ) next company is invited, according to the Erdenes TT
6 .The intention of commies is to reduce foreigner's ROI and profits to 3-5 %
Force them to serve M UNLIMITED NEEDS instead of serving their shareholders.
In that light -- according to commies - RIO shall be happy to retain 13% profits from OT LOOOL
Right now M takes 71% of OT profits from 34% ownewrship and all taxes ,royalties
By increasing M ownership to 50% they will capture 87% profits and worse : be practically in control of OT
If they will gain control ,GOM will plunder , pillage and /or use OT as collateral for GOM debts .
BTW: TRQ / RIO is fighting for public opinion by placating U1B and other cities with posters telling the 71% truth.
The commies are suing TRQ /RIO for falsehood , demanded in Parliment
removal of the posters and public apology to M people for false advertising
The F Bold Bat mothers are really devoted to throw RIO on it,s kneees ..
7 . Above TT / ETT story is relevant to OT situation
If GOM will screw up itself on TT / ETT scam
IT is spending already the IMAGINED $ 4b of future IPO loot
and will get just $1 b instead , (nothing if they will give up on IPO)
the whole unstable socio -economic system will start collapsing
And either RIO/ FI will be in better position to bargain / keep the agreements
or painted into corner wild and mad BAT , having nothing to lose
will attack everybody = wholesale nationalization .
The OT delays will hurt the shareholders a little
( SP price should not get much lower- the carnage happened already )
but it will also delay GOM income ( 2 times higher than shareholders portion of income )
and help to bring them to the fiscal cliff by May 2013
Everybody loses here so far,
Thanks to too greedy commies , and naive belief
they can move from stone age to 21-st century instantly effordlessly
on the backs of good uncles , called FDI
8 BUT ETT situation will get much worse for stupid GOM
They distributed 20% of ETT shares to people for free and gave people option
to sell them back to GOM AT UNREALISTIC FIXED PRICE OF ASSUMED $ 12 B ETT CAP
That;s $ 2.4 b GOM liability ( 24% of GDP ) , they don,t have money for
geeeesus
After ETT IPO, people`s shares will be worth likely less than 1/4
The GOM scam will be exposed by May 2013 and will hurt worsen GOM budget
The biggest failure among all the other failed privatisation schemes.
geeeesus
I predict Greek few years -long model .
GOM planed $ 5B bond issuance will start the process.
GS - same as in case of Greece is already there to accelerate their downfall
Politicians in Greece in order to keep being elected and facing strong unions , entitlemenmt mentality ( EXTREMALLY STRONG IN POST SOVIET COUNTRIES)
were increasing wages ,perks social benefits, entitlements above economy ability to pay for it ( as did all communist countries)
Taking more debt to cover the difference was easier for them
then facing never ending people's demands for more and more freebies in exchange for less, non- productive work .
As M Tatcher said : " socialism is a beautifull thing
...until someone else stops paying for it "
You are that "someone else " who pays for Bold Bats better standard of living .
As low as it may be , it is still unsustainable by their own economy / productivity - ahead of time .
Actually, whole EU Can , US went through this increasing welfare state process.
UK , Germany , Netherlands realising this is unsustainable reformed/ reversed this system
And now they are competitive and productive .
Living within their means
. Not US ,though
Neither Americans nor Bold Bats can use the math or learn from others
They must and will learn ti the hard way .
geeeesus , save us from 4 horseman of Apocalypse and from Mongolian hordes
Seems , Rio /TRQ is delaying EVERYTHING with OT -
Which is the only rational move in light of
-- not only commie attack in progress but also
-- looming overall M investment paradigm change ( The REVIEW of all FDI cos)
towards better profits for M and worse outlook /higher risk
of getting lower ROI (or higher loses ) for foreign investors
As one Bold Bat = P.Ochirbat, a mining professional who was the first President of Mongolia and was Chairman of the Organizing Committee of 2012 Discover Mongolia said :
" we are no longer begging them to come and invest here....
Maybe one day soon, it will be the investors who would beg to be allowed in "
( so , be ready to beg suckers / bagholders to be rimmed up by Bold -Bats - commies
.....geeeeesus )
The 6 - 8 months delays :
1 -- First commercial prod till Apr - May - the soonest
If power this week - 6-7 months later as published here
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=31636064&l=0&r=0&s=trq&t=LIST
2-- OT Underground Feasibility Study till "first half" 2012
3.Project financing --$ 4 B till first half of 2013 = not even the greediest
and most risk taking bankers will finance OT in this athmosphere
So, seems as long winter for both:
--all the foreign investors taken hostage
( incl. 90 CAN cos , 54 AU cos, countless Chinese cos , countless M cos counting on FI )
and the insolvent , desperate GOM.
The China slowdown and M commies have frozen M economy and it shows .
Yesterday World Bank announced 40% DROP IN M GDP growth rate for 2012
40 %!!!!!!!......GEEEEESUS
And budget deficit sky rocketing
Why May 2013 is the next point of clearer visibility ?
1. By May 2013 the pivot point for Mongolia`s budget survival or death and whole M economic future will be reached
2.The gov `REVIEW` of all FI agreements and the extend of sqeezing ,
screwing up FI should be known by then
Although , knowing the Bold Bats. they may not finish this for years .
By that time FI will know better if
the gov money grab is acceptable by FI or
the current FI will start REAL EXODUS
and future FI will drop to almost nothing .
Including OT
= either project financing and growth
--or no more investment and running OT as is- only open pit
-- or developing underground bit by bit ,from open pit profits only
( which may not be much after gov portion of profits will be
spend YEARS AHEAD before profoits will arrive- $ 500m of them gone already )
In last case full planed OT prod., moves from 2016 to like 2026
I guess, the result of the REVIEW will be mixed .
Those ,who can afford to get out will exit.
Those, who are beyound point of return - like TRQ - will have to accept haircut or sue them
In the end, FI amounts will shrink but M will grab higher %% of it .
Bold Bats' goal is to use FI and F cos as SERVANTS ,contractors working for them @ 3%-5% profit margin , + assume all market risk
and of course finance 100% ( see below )
In that case better FI deal is to lend to GOM money @ 6%
( they won't default for few years) or
open M bank account paying 15%
3. The TT scandalous gov scam / manipulation shall reach final stage by May 2013
If their double game on ETT IPO ( Apr - May 2013) and TT sale to FI ( end 2012 or NEVER )
won't work as planned, the gov/ state will start downward trajectory
ending with Greece-like default within few years
Unlike Greece , there is no one to bail them out .
Means , " Don't Cry For Me Argentina " LOOL
There are strong ndications , that their too big greed ,
combined with China slowdown will destroy them
WHEN CHINA ( yet alone whole world ) SNEEZES , M IS DEAD
It is a game who will have stronger hand by May 2013 RIO/ FI or GOM.
If TT and ETT will not deliver the planed amount of money to GOM to plug the budget hole they will stiil be begging FI ,( Incl RIO )for a while
And turning FI into beggars will be postponed for few years
4. WHY TT AND ETT WILL TURN INTO DISASTER BY MAY 2013 ?
In 3 words : apparatchick;s wrong math
GOM took best case scenario on TOP OF COAL PRICES CYCLE and
expects to make $4 B on ETT IPO = selling to bagholders 29% of ETT and valuing it at $ 12 b
ETT 2012 prod = 3mt selling 65% met and 35% thermal coal
The aver selling price of ROM = unwashed coal was
BEFORE CHINA DEMAND COLAPSE $ 65/ t x 3mt /y = $ 200m rev 2012/ 13
Chalco gave them already $ 250 m as prepayment for all the coal they can produce in next 3 or 5 years
GOM stole most of it and that $ 250 m dissapeared already
So, ETT will work FOR FREE in the first Y - longer if demand will shrink by 1/2 ( M coal exports to China collapsed by 1/2 in Aug )
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=31623617&l=0&r=0&s=sgq&t=LIST
ETT has no, ZIP money not only for capex to increase the PUMPED /HYPED mine prod
6mt /2013 , 10 mt /2014 , 15 mt / 2015 , 20 mt / 2017
( at least $ 200m capex for each 4 mt increase = $ 1b to get to 20mt )
but also no money in first Y to pay the contractor his $ 500m production cost over next 5 y
and another $ 2 b to build wash plant
+ 275 km road to China
+ 275 km railroad
+ 400km railroad to the north
+ 300MW power plant
+ 70 km water pipeline and wells
+ whole town for thousands workers with hospitals schools etc.
+ pay for the development work done already by vendor financing contractors
TOTAL NEEDED $ 4 b
IPO supposed to get that at $ 12 b valuation
They already realized this is a pipe dreeam and are talking $ 10 b valuation now
Call me when they stop at $ 3 b and max $ 1 b loot from IPO.
If they'll manage to suck investors at higher than $ 3 B cap IPO price ,
the investors will loose mightly from day 1
WLT - selling 12 mt highest quality HC coal at highest = seaborne benchmark prices
of $ 210/t not $ 65/.t
--and going to 20 mt much sooner than ETT
-- having $ 100 /t profits vs TT no more than $25 /t
has cap of $ 2.2 b geeesus
Given the
-- 3 times WLT higher profits/ t
-- , worldwide ESTABLISHED customers long term contracts
-- no growth financing problems
-- safest jurisdiction ( heaven vs Mongolian commie hell )
-- producing now 12 mt vs ETT 3 mt ( 1mt by comparable selling price)
-- will produce 20mt WASHED vs 20 mt ETT unvashed = 14 mt washed equiv
-- no middlemen / gatekeeper like Chalco or other chinese traders who pay ETT 30% lower prices
ETT shall be valued at 1/3 the WLT cap , if not 1/4
= $ 800 m and IPO loot of selling 30% = less than $ 300m
AND THE STUPID BOLD BATS ARE HALUCINATING ABOUT $ 10 B !!!!!!
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Even if market and coal prices will rebound by May 2013
and ETT will produce by that time 5 mt
ETT is not worth more than 1/2 WLT on May 2013
Most optimistic scenario : WLT will go up 80% to $ 4 b cap by May 2013
So , ETT = $ 2b cap max and $700 m loot from IPO vs needed $ 4 b
BTU the king of coal has cap $ 6.4 b geeeeesus
5. AN ATTEMPT TO TURN KING OF COAL = BTU INTO SERVITUDE OF COMMIE OVERLORDS
The BATS have nerve and unbelivably idiotic greed
Originally , they wanted to sell West TT deposit to FI to get money to finance East TT = ETT or fix GOM budget
Then their greed took over and now ETT will keep ownership of West TT
ETT instead is sending letters to former West TT bidders trying to make them to beg for a TT contractor position = you pay $ billions in capex , and work for us @ say, cost +_ 5% profit geeeeesus
MACMAHON the AU contractor for ETT has overall profit margin 3%
Here MAH chart after he signed ETT contract LOOOOL
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=MAH.AX&t=1y&q=l&l=off&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
Here ETT letter to BTU
http://resources.newsresources.info/mining/photo/2012/10/1d541d120721f054/6fe446f2bd9815d0big.jpg
Peabody Energy is still not chosen as a contract miner , it is only invited to the discussion
. If the discussion is unsuccessful, ( READ : BTU WON'T ACCEPT TO BE A SLAVE FOR COMMIE PENNYLESS BEGGARS ) next company is invited, according to the Erdenes TT
6 .The intention of commies is to reduce foreigner's ROI and profits to 3-5 %
Force them to serve M UNLIMITED NEEDS instead of serving their shareholders.
In that light -- according to commies - RIO shall be happy to retain 13% profits from OT LOOOL
Right now M takes 71% of OT profits from 34% ownewrship and all taxes ,royalties
By increasing M ownership to 50% they will capture 87% profits and worse : be practically in control of OT
If they will gain control ,GOM will plunder , pillage and /or use OT as collateral for GOM debts .
BTW: TRQ / RIO is fighting for public opinion by placating U1B and other cities with posters telling the 71% truth.
The commies are suing TRQ /RIO for falsehood , demanded in Parliment
removal of the posters and public apology to M people for false advertising
The F Bold Bat mothers are really devoted to throw RIO on it,s kneees ..
7 . Above TT / ETT story is relevant to OT situation
If GOM will screw up itself on TT / ETT scam
IT is spending already the IMAGINED $ 4b of future IPO loot
and will get just $1 b instead , (nothing if they will give up on IPO)
the whole unstable socio -economic system will start collapsing
And either RIO/ FI will be in better position to bargain / keep the agreements
or painted into corner wild and mad BAT , having nothing to lose
will attack everybody = wholesale nationalization .
The OT delays will hurt the shareholders a little
( SP price should not get much lower- the carnage happened already )
but it will also delay GOM income ( 2 times higher than shareholders portion of income )
and help to bring them to the fiscal cliff by May 2013
Everybody loses here so far,
Thanks to too greedy commies , and naive belief
they can move from stone age to 21-st century instantly effordlessly
on the backs of good uncles , called FDI
8 BUT ETT situation will get much worse for stupid GOM
They distributed 20% of ETT shares to people for free and gave people option
to sell them back to GOM AT UNREALISTIC FIXED PRICE OF ASSUMED $ 12 B ETT CAP
That;s $ 2.4 b GOM liability ( 24% of GDP ) , they don,t have money for
geeeesus
After ETT IPO, people`s shares will be worth likely less than 1/4
The GOM scam will be exposed by May 2013 and will hurt worsen GOM budget
The biggest failure among all the other failed privatisation schemes.
geeeesus
I predict Greek few years -long model .
GOM planed $ 5B bond issuance will start the process.
GS - same as in case of Greece is already there to accelerate their downfall
Politicians in Greece in order to keep being elected and facing strong unions , entitlemenmt mentality ( EXTREMALLY STRONG IN POST SOVIET COUNTRIES)
were increasing wages ,perks social benefits, entitlements above economy ability to pay for it ( as did all communist countries)
Taking more debt to cover the difference was easier for them
then facing never ending people's demands for more and more freebies in exchange for less, non- productive work .
As M Tatcher said : " socialism is a beautifull thing
...until someone else stops paying for it "
You are that "someone else " who pays for Bold Bats better standard of living .
As low as it may be , it is still unsustainable by their own economy / productivity - ahead of time .
Actually, whole EU Can , US went through this increasing welfare state process.
UK , Germany , Netherlands realising this is unsustainable reformed/ reversed this system
And now they are competitive and productive .
Living within their means
. Not US ,though
Neither Americans nor Bold Bats can use the math or learn from others
They must and will learn ti the hard way .
geeeesus , save us from 4 horseman of Apocalypse and from Mongolian hordes
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